{"id":491,"date":"2026-09-04T18:32:39","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T18:32:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rockefellerpublishing.com\/blogs\/?p=491"},"modified":"2026-09-04T18:33:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T18:33:22","slug":"ebook-lending-vs-book-sales-is-the-publishing-industry-at-a-tipping-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rockefellerpublishing.com\/blogs\/ebook-lending-vs-book-sales-is-the-publishing-industry-at-a-tipping-point\/","title":{"rendered":"eBook Lending vs. Book Sales: Is the Publishing Industry at a Tipping Point?"},"content":{"rendered":"

A 2026 joint study by the Association of American Publishers (AAP) and the Authors Guild. The study was conducted by Secretariat Advisors, an independent economic research firm. It found that increased library eBook lending is substituting for retail book sales. Active library members buy 42% fewer new books than non-members. State laws compelling publishers to license eBooks to libraries at reduced rates are intensifying the conflict. These laws carry major copyright and revenue implications for the entire publishing ecosystem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Library eBook lending has never been more popular. That popularity is now at the center of one of the most consequential debates in modern publishing.\u00a0Digital checkouts via Libby and Sora hit 820.5 million in 2025, an all-time high. At the same time, publishers and authors are raising urgent questions about what that borrowing boom is costing the retail book market.<\/span><\/p>\n

The tension isn’t new, but it’s reaching a breaking point. <\/span>New research, new legislation, and a growing divide between the Big Five publishers and library advocates have taken shape around this issue. Together, they’ve pushed library eBook lending and digital book rights to the top of the publishing industry’s agenda.<\/p>\n

What was once a niche licensing dispute is quickly becoming a fight over the future of how books are funded, written, and distributed.<\/span><\/p>\n

This post breaks down what the latest research actually found and what’s driving the legislative push in states like Illinois. It also covers what library advocates say in response. Finally, it looks at what all of this means, practically, for traditional publishers, self-published authors<\/a><\/strong>, and readers. Whether you’re tracking eBook library licensing in 2026 or trying to understand how this affects your own publishing strategy, here’s what you need to know.<\/span><\/p>\n

What the New AAP and Authors Guild Study Actually Found<\/span><\/h2>\n

The report at the center of this debate was jointly released by the Association of American Publishers (AAP) and the Authors Guild. It was conducted by independent economic research firm Secretariat Advisors.\u00a0That last detail matters. Independent research carries significantly more weight than industry self-reporting, and Secretariat Advisors’ involvement lends the findings a credibility that’s hard to dismiss.<\/span><\/p>\n

The headline finding: increased library eBook lending is substituting for retail book sales. When readers can borrow a title for free through their library app, a meaningful share of them choose not to buy it in print or digitally.<\/span><\/p>\n

Key finding:<\/span><\/strong> According to a June 2026 Authors Guild survey cited in the report, active library members buy <\/span>42% fewer new books<\/span><\/strong> than non-members, with the substitution effect most pronounced for popular, high-demand titles.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That 42% figure is striking on its own. But the mechanism behind it is what makes the digital lending publishing economy particularly complicated. With physical book lending, publishers at least make a one-time sale when a library acquires a copy. The economics of eBook licensing work differently. A single license can enable unlimited or near-unlimited borrowing, which means that one transaction can displace a far greater number of potential retail sales than a physical copy ever could. The digital format itself structurally amplifies the substitution effect.<\/span><\/p>\n

The AAP Authors Guild eBook study frames this not as an attack on libraries, but as a call to examine how the current licensing model affects the broader book economy, including the authors whose advances and royalties depend on retail revenue.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Legislative Push: Why State Laws Are Fueling the Fire<\/span><\/h2>\n

The research didn’t emerge in a vacuum. It landed against a backdrop of rapid legislative activity that is fundamentally reshaping the eBook library licensing landscape in 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

Several U.S. states are exploring or enacting laws that would compel publishers to license eBooks to libraries on more affordable and expansive terms. Illinois is the furthest along. H.B. 5236 passed unanimously, a rare show of bipartisan consensus that sends a clear political signal: legislators, at least at the state level, are siding with libraries.<\/span><\/p>\n

For publishers, the concern goes beyond the financial terms of any single state’s law. The legal argument centers on federal copyright law, which grants copyright holders the right to negotiate their own licensing terms. State mandates that override those rights don’t just change a pricing structure. They set a precedent that could invite further regulatory encroachment on digital content rights across other media, from music to film to software.<\/span><\/p>\n

AAP CEO Maria Pallante and Authors Guild CEO Mary Rasenberger have responded to this legislative momentum with a joint statement that attempts to reframe the entire debate. Their position: supporting libraries and protecting intellectual property is “not a tradeoff.” Both goals can coexist, but the path forward is direct government funding of library eBook budgets, not compelled licensing that shifts the cost burden onto publishers and authors.<\/span><\/p>\n

That distinction matters. Compelled licensing doesn’t make eBooks cheaper to produce; it simply changes who absorbs the cost. Pallante and Rasenberger’s argument is that the public interest is better served by adequately funding libraries to pay fair market rates, rather than by legally mandating those rates downward.<\/span><\/p>\n

The eBook legislation’s impact on publishers, if these state laws proliferate, could reach well beyond Illinois. A patchwork of state-level digital book rights frameworks would be operationally complex, legally contested, and potentially devastating for frontlist titles the new releases where publisher revenue (and author advances) are most concentrated.<\/span><\/p>\n

What Library Advocates Are Saying<\/span><\/h2>\n

Any honest assessment of this debate requires taking the library sector’s counterargument seriously, and the numbers they cite are genuinely compelling.<\/span><\/p>\n

Digital lending via the Libby and Sora platforms reached 820.5 million checkouts in 2025. That’s not a niche activity. That’s a fundamental shift in how millions of people access books, and library advocates argue it represents enormous public benefit that the publishing industry’s framing tends to undercount.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the budget question, library advocates point to Illinois data from 2022 showing that eBook and audiobook spending accounts for less than 5% of libraries’ total operating budgets. From that perspective, the publishers’ concerns start to look disproportionate to the actual financial exposure involved.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps the most nuanced point comes from the Urban Libraries Council, which has highlighted that the licensing conflict is largely concentrated among the Big Five publishers. Smaller and independent publishers already operate with more flexible, collaborative library licensing terms. That distinction is important. It suggests the problem is not an inherent feature of the library model, but rather a specific standoff between a small number of large publishers and the library ecosystem.<\/span><\/p>\n

A comparison of current licensing approaches illustrates the divide:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Publisher Type<\/b><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Typical eBook Licensing Model<\/b><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Library Flexibility<\/b><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Big Five Publishers<\/span><\/td>\nMetered access (limited checkouts per license); embargo periods on new titles; premium pricing<\/span><\/td>\nLow \u2014 terms largely non-negotiable<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Independent\/Small Publishers<\/span><\/td>\nPerpetual or flexible licenses; lower per-title cost; fewer embargo restrictions<\/span><\/td>\nHigh \u2014 often willing to negotiate directly<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

What This Means for Traditional and Big Five Publishers<\/span><\/h2>\n

Shift from reporting to analysis, and the picture for large publishing houses gets more complicated.<\/span><\/p>\n

If state-level eBook legislation spreads, publishers could face compelled licensing at rates they argue are economically unviable. This is particularly true for frontlist titles, where the window between release and peak sales is narrow. During that window, retail purchases are most price-sensitive. A reader who borrows a new release through a library app on launch week behaves differently from one who doesn’t. This is according to the AAP Authors Guild eBook study data. That reader is substantially less likely to purchase the same title at retail.<\/p>\n

The downstream effect on authors is direct. Publisher revenues fund author advances, and it’s mid-list authors who aren’t guaranteed bestsellers but depend on advances to write full-time who are most exposed when those revenues compress. The conversation about library eBook lending is, in this sense, also a conversation about what kinds of books get funded and which authors can afford to keep writing.<\/span><\/p>\n

There’s also the precedent argument. A state-level win that compels eBook licensing could signal to regulators in adjacent industries music streaming, video, software that digital content rights are negotiable at the legislative level. The publishing industry impact of that precedent could extend well beyond books.<\/span><\/p>\n

What Self-Published Authors Need to Know About Library eBook Lending<\/span><\/h2>\n

It’s tempting to view this as a Big Five problem that doesn’t touch the self-publishing world. That would be a mistake.<\/span><\/p>\n

Platforms like OverDrive power library eBook distribution and connect indie titles to library systems globally. This positions them at the intersection of this debate. If new licensing requirements reshape how OverDrive operates, self-published authors could feel the ripple effects. The same is true if state laws impose new conditions on library distribution platforms. This applies even to authors who have opted into library distribution but have no direct relationship with a traditional publisher.<\/p>\n

The current moment carries a more immediate lesson, too. The direct-to-reader model through platforms like Amazon KDP<\/a><\/strong> gives self-published authors something that Big Five authors don’t have in this context: full control over pricing and distribution. Authors distributing directly are not subject to the same library-dependency risks that make this legislative environment so fraught for traditional publishers.<\/span><\/p>\n

That said, library distribution remains a legitimate and valuable channel for self-published authors seeking discoverability. The practical takeaway is not to abandon library channels, but to understand them clearly: know which platforms you’re distributing through, what terms govern that distribution, and how changes in the eBook library licensing landscape might affect your reach and revenue.<\/span><\/p>\n

Diversifying revenue streams across retail, library, direct sales, and serialization platforms is always a sound strategy. The current digital lending publishing economy debate makes that advice more urgent.<\/span><\/p>\n

What Happens Next: Three Scenarios to Watch<\/span><\/h2>\n

The eBook library licensing debate in 2026 is unlikely to resolve quickly. Three scenarios are most plausible:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Federal intervention.<\/span><\/strong> Congress establishes a national framework for library eBook licensing, replacing the emerging patchwork of state laws with a single, consistent standard. This is the outcome publishers would likely prefer it preserves some negotiating structure and removes the uncertainty of state-by-state legislation.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Legislative expansion.<\/span><\/strong> More states follow Illinois, increasing political pressure on publishers to either negotiate new terms voluntarily or face compelled licensing on an expanding geographic scale. This scenario is most favorable to libraries in the short term. Still, it creates the legal and operational complexity that publishers warn against.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. Industry negotiation.<\/span><\/strong> Publishers, library associations, and government reach a voluntary licensing framework potentially modeled on how music streaming royalties are structured, where statutory rates and collective licensing coexist with some room for negotiation. This is the AAP and Authors Guild’s preferred resolution, paired with direct government funding of library eBook budgets to preserve copyright integrity while supporting public access.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Key signals to track: upcoming state legislative sessions, any commentary from the U.S. Copyright Office, and whether the Big Five publishers respond with new, tiered licensing structures specifically designed for library lending.<\/span><\/p>\n

    A Debate That Defines the Future of Digital Publishing<\/span><\/h2>\n

    Two data points sit at the heart of this dispute. Library eBook borrowing is at an all-time high. Retail book sales are under pressure. Both sides use these numbers to make valid arguments, and neither is wrong to do so.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Three takeaways are worth holding onto:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. The substitution effect is real and empirically supported<\/span><\/strong>. The AAP Authors Guild eBook study, conducted by independent firm Secretariat Advisors, provides credible evidence that library borrowing displaces retail purchases, particularly for high-demand titles. The scale of that effect relative to overall publishing revenue remains contested, but the direction of the effect is not.<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. State-level legislation is accelerating this debate<\/span><\/strong>, and the copyright implications extend well beyond books. Illinois H.B. 5236’s unanimous passage is a political signal that publishers cannot afford to ignore, and the precedent it sets for digital content rights broadly deserves more attention than it’s currently receiving.<\/span><\/li>\n
    3. For self-published authors, distribution decisions are now strategic in a new way.<\/span><\/strong> Understanding how your titles flow through library channels and what might change about those channels is no longer optional background knowledge.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      The deeper question the industry is circling: as digital reading continues to grow, can publishing find a model that sustains both universal access and the economics that make professional authorship viable? There’s no clean answer yet. But the decisions made in the next 12 to 24 months in state legislatures, federal copyright discussions, and publisher boardrooms will shape that answer for a generation.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Subscribe to our newsletter for ongoing coverage of eBook distribution strategies, self-publishing economics, and publishing industry developments. If you’re evaluating your own publishing path, our book publishing services<\/strong><\/a> can help you weigh traditional, independent, and hybrid options. You can also explore our related posts on eBook distribution platforms, self-publishing royalty structures, and copyright basics for independent authors.<\/em><\/p>\n

      Frequently Asked Questions<\/span><\/h2>\n

      Does library borrowing actually hurt book sales?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      According to a 2026 study jointly released by the AAP and the Authors Guild and conducted by Secretariat Advisors, yes, increased library eBook lending is associated with reduced retail book purchases. A June 2026 Authors Guild survey found that active library members buy 42% fewer new books than non-members. The effect is most pronounced for popular, high-demand titles borrowed digitally.<\/span><\/p>\n

      What is the AAP Authors Guild eBook study?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      The AAP Authors Guild eBook study is a report jointly released in 2026 by the Association of American Publishers and the Authors Guild, conducted by independent economic research firm Secretariat Advisors. The study examines the relationship between library eBook lending and retail book sales, finding a significant substitution effect that the organizations argue has major implications for publisher revenues and author earnings.<\/span><\/p>\n

      How does library eBook licensing work?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      Libraries do not own eBooks the way they own physical books. Instead, they license them from publishers under terms that typically limit the number of checkouts per license or set a time-based expiration. Big Five publishers generally offer metered access at premium prices. They may embargo new releases for a period after retail launch. Independent publishers often offer more flexible terms. State legislation in places like Illinois is pushing to change these terms by compelling publishers to license on more affordable conditions.<\/span><\/p>\n

      What is Illinois H.B. 5236, and why does it matter?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      Illinois H.B. 5236 is a state bill that passed unanimously, requiring publishers to offer eBook licenses to libraries on reasonable terms. It matters because it represents the strongest legislative signal yet that U.S. states are prepared to override publisher discretion on eBook licensing, a move publishers argue conflicts with federal copyright law and sets a dangerous precedent for digital content rights.<\/span><\/p>\n

      How does the library eBook debate affect self-published authors?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      Self-published authors who distribute through library platforms like OverDrive could be affected if new licensing requirements change how those platforms operate. More broadly, the debate is a prompt for indie authors to understand their distribution agreements, diversify revenue streams, and consider how library lending intersects with retail sales for their specific titles and genres.<\/span><\/p>\n

      What do publishers want instead of compelled licensing?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

      The AAP and Authors Guild have called for direct government funding of library eBook budgets. This would let libraries pay fair market rates for eBook licenses without the cost burden falling entirely on publishers. Their position, as stated jointly by AAP CEO Maria Pallante and Authors Guild CEO Mary Rasenberger, is that supporting libraries and protecting intellectual property are “not a tradeoff. Both goals are achievable through adequate public funding. This is preferable to mandated pricing.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      A 2026 joint study by the Association of American Publishers (AAP) and the Authors Guild. The study was conducted by Secretariat Advisors, an independent economic research firm. It found that increased library eBook lending is substituting for retail book sales. Active library members buy 42% fewer new books than non-members. State laws compelling publishers to … eBook Lending vs. Book Sales: Is the Publishing Industry at a Tipping Point?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[450,452,449,453,451],"class_list":["post-491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-digital-book-rights","tag-ebook-library-licensing-2026","tag-library-ebook-lending","tag-library-ebook-lending-publishing-industry","tag-publishing-industry-impact"],"yoast_head":"\neBook Lending vs. Book Sales: A Publishing Crisis?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new AAP & Authors Guild study reveals library eBook lending is cutting into book sales. 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